Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero has reportedly turned down ONE BILLION PESOS offered to him in exchange for withdrawing from the presidential race, two sources have just now told me separately. Wow.
I tried phoning his cell but he’s not answering. I have no reason not to believe my two sources because both are highly reliable and IN THE LOOP.

I was told Senator Chiz will announce today at the earliest that he will push through with his candidacy but leave the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) of businessman Eduardo Cojuangco. He has nothing to lose. He will look good and even if he loses, he is still a senator with a mandate till 2013.

The sources both said the NPC founder had forged an agreement to pair off NPC official, Senator Loren Legarda, with Senator Manuel Villar, chair of the Nacionalista Party who is running for president.

Doesn’t this smack of an arranged marriage? They mentioned Senator Eduardo Angara as the marriage broker.

Anyway, Ms. Loren, who professes to be single right now, is the happy bride.

Wonder how much her dowry will cost Cojuangco who is still trying to wangle total control of San Miguel Corporation.

Dear President Ramos,

By this time, you must have read the open letter of your niece, Lila, to you. It is now circulating on the net after she placed it in her blog (see http://lilashahani.blogspot.com/2009/10/open-letter-to-fvr.html).

She is one brave lady, I think, because she even placed her age (42) for all the world to see.

In case you haven’t read it, I’m reprinting it below. Before you do so, I’d like to say that except for what happened with the Amari land deal and the Centennial Expo I thought you made one hell of a president.

And I will always recall with fondness the first time I saw you. It was the day after you and Juan Ponce Enrile, the defense minister then, had evaded your cousin, President Ferdinand Marcos’ arrest. You and Eduardo Ermita were holed up in Camp Crame.I was one of the reporters who who went inside your office to interview you.

You were Mr. Cool, especially when you told the reporters very nonchalantly – Ladies and Gentlemen, I’d like you to go down now where you’ll be safe because the tanks are coming.

You were ready to face the music. I like that in a leader. Now you’re being asked to face the music again by your niece and millions of Filipinos here and abroad. Here’s what she has to say:

___________________

14 October 2009
Dear Uncle Ed,

I was very relieved to hear that you were all safe and sound in the wake of
Ondoy and Pepeng. But how devastating that our people had to go through two such onslaughts (particularly in Pangasinan, Ilocos and Manila — all of which remain very close to our hearts) one after the other! I hope and pray that the flooding eventually subsides and people are rehabilitated safely. And if Napocor and the San Roque people are in fact partially responsible for the terrible flooding in Pangasinan, I sincerely hope that they are made to face their day in court.

I thought I would write you because I’m concerned about some things that have been happening at home. I am not sure who you will endorse for president but I know that it will most likely tip the balance again, much in the way that your endorsements have done in the past. I have never felt the need to write you before, although I have always carefully observed your decisions through the years.

And I certainly had questions — questions about human rights during the martial law years, military logging under the Marcos administration, the signing of IPP contracts after the power crisis (and the high cost of electricity for consumers), the San Roque dam, PEA/Amari, the Fort Bonifacio conversion/privatization program, the VFA, the Centennial celebration, the endorsement of Joe de V and the continued support of GMA until the bitter end. I was relieved to learn that you had been cleared of any wrongdoing in the PEA/Amari case, but always wondered whether your decision to endorse Joe de V (which was after all a party decision as well) was inextricably linked to it.

Why am I bringing all this up now? Only to say that, as your niece, I have had many questions about your decisions through the years, but none that ever made me feel the need to engage with you at length. To begin with, ours was not a particularly discursive relationship. More importantly, I always felt the need to give you the benefit of the doubt, and trusted that you had the best interests of the Filipino people at heart.

And there was certainly ample evidence that you had done tremendous things in your lifetime. Not only were you a hero of EDSA 1: you had had a brilliant military career and were arguably one of the best presidents the country has ever had. Winning by only a small margin, you turned what might have been a costly liability into the success of pluralism. With liberalization and deregulation during your term, FDI increased and the economy as a whole remained strong, even throughout the Asian financial crisis. In fact, privatization, revenue generation through a VAT on luxury goods and services, working with the communist and Muslim insurgency, and focusing on OFW rights (particularly in the case of Flor Contemplacion) — were all hallmarks of your administration, and certainly the kind of decisions my Fletcher professors would have applauded. Indeed, the suggestions of corruption were minimal, seen in the context of all your positive contributions and in comparison with preceding and succeeding presidents. Without a doubt.

But I finally had to break my silence after having watched the Ondoy aftermath with horror, realizing that our government was as much to blame for the colossal loss of life and habitation in the country as was climate change. As an engineer, you know that the flooding was also due to poor civil engineering, urban planning and zoning; lack of waste management; lack of education and corruption.

The thought of your supporting Gibo (or even a Villar/Escudero tandem, for that matter, in the event that Gibo has become too unpopular since Ondoy) was finally enough to make me put pen to paper. Without a doubt, Gibo is “incomparably competent,” but then so were Joe de V and GMA, Uncle Ed — and look what happened. I understand that you supported GMA because you wanted macroeconomic stability in the country above all, particularly in the apparent absence of any viable alternatives.

But I think the sweep of history speaks for itself: competent candidates with strong party affiliations are not necessarily going to be good leaders, nor will they necessarily be what the people want. Because they lack a certain basic honesty, and I suspect the people sense that. If Gibo were sincere, why would he stay with Lakas-CMD, particularly now that the merger with Kampi has been honored by the Supreme Court? Surely the ruling party has been discredited at this point, in view of everything GMA has done? There really is no need to enumerate anymore: I think, by now, we’re all pretty familiar with what those things are.

Even Obama was reluctant to have an audience with her, and overseas Filipinos continue to refuse to send money to the Ondoy victims through their embassies and consulates, so deep indeed is their distrust of the government! Moreover, his performance in the post-Ondoy relief effort has hardly been stellar, as you must have already noted. Gibo is also undoubtedly backed by Danding (despite the alleged rift), which suggests that the two things that very much impede progress in our country — monopolies and oligarchy itself — will ultimately remain unchanged. This is ostensibly the reason why many young people remain wary of Chiz/Loren or Villar/Escudero. As for Manny V, his meteoric rise to power is nothing short of impressive, to be sure, but his proclivity for engaging in back-room deals has certainly not gone unnoticed. In short, what we see in these candidates appears to be more of the same — a position, I might add, we can no longer afford, and certainly not at this critical moment in our nation’s history.

Of course Erap’s decision to run will split up the opposition even further, which certainly strengthens the ruling party’s hand. But perhaps my biggest fear about Gibo (apart from the very real possibility that, in subtle ways, the ruling party might cheat) has to do with the fact that charter change appears to be imminent, in which case, if GMA runs for Congress in the meantime, it is not entirely inconceivable that she could become our next Prime Minister. To be sure, you would be granted the same type of soft power you’ve been granted during GMA’s administration, but is it really worth it in the end, Uncle Ed? Do you really want to go down in history as the guy who saved GMA after “Hello, Garci” and who continued to hand the country down to its unscrupulous elite from one administration to another? Isn’t the respect of the young — and of history itself — the most important thing, at the end of the day? In my humble opinion, the best way to refurbish the fading Eddie brand now is to do the right thing and heed the will of the people.

Noynoy, of course, is less than perfect: we all know that. His record is remarkable only in its lack of remarkable achievements, and he certainly isn’t a particularly brilliant thinker or charismatic speaker. But he has never been tainted by any suggestions of corruption and does not appear to have the propensity to throw his weight around. He is apparently thoughtful, respectful and humble, and we can only hope that his lineage will encourage him to sacrifice for the country the way his extraordinary parents did. Because of this inimitable heritage, he is now the one candidate with the potential to unite the opposition against the ruling party. For his part, Mar is no slouch, moreover, and the Liberal Party appears to have some progressive elements.

The point is: the people are clearly tired, not just of the “bickering,” as you say, but of the trapos themselves, and are willing to bet on someone who falls very far outside the standard mold (Noynoy is, if you will, a reluctant Cojuangco, something many respect and appreciate). At any rate, I sincerely hope you will consider my thoughts — the thoughts of a young Filipina who loves her country immeasurably — when you make your decision.

But none of this changes my love and respect for you, Uncle Ed. I’m just sorely disappointed and hope that, for once in my life, you might actually recognize that I’m old enough to make my own assessments. Nor does this mean that I’m not a “team player.” Because my definition of teamwork is not that you command the team and everyone is thereby obligated to obey you. Instead, team members should be able to have different view points, while still working together for the greater good of the collective whole. In fact, democratic exchange within the team can often enhance the quality of its collective decisions on the whole.

I sincerely hope that you place the country over any other considerations and choose the candidate who is really best for the country, and not in terms of who might further consolidate the tremendous power you already wield.

I hope you won’t be offended by what I have written (and hope you understand if I decide to include some of these ideas in my new blog) but, at 42, I think I’m finally entitled to my own opinion, Uncle Ed. You are after all the only father figure I have ever had (although you may not know it) and I’m writing you the way I would have written my own father, had I just been given a chance.

Please take care of yourself.

Love always,

Lil

Note:

1.) Three people deserve special mention in the writing of this letter: the first is my wonderful brother Chanda, who has unfailingly shared his very deep insights into the murky inner workings and internecine warfares in Philippine politics throughout. Chand also continued to stay in touch with me when no one else in the family seemed to want to talk to me after the letter had been written. The second is my good friend Jojo de Veyra, who criticized much of the draft and defended my uncle in a number of instances, forcing me to reformulate my own positions. Both the insights of Chanda and Jo led to a revision of my original PEA/Amari reference. And, finally, Sylvia Mayuga, another dear friend, who shared much of the heartache that followed the stony silence, continuing to encourage and support me regardless of whether or not I chose to send the letter and make it public. Jo and Sylvia never stopped bugging me to write something — anything! — because they apparently believed in my ability to do so. Jo even went out of his way to set up this blog, since I was clearly too inept to do it myself. To all three, I remain deeply grateful.

First of all, forgive me for not writing on my blog for such a long time. I’ve been swamped with deadlines, the current one being a series of interviews of key presidential candidates for Asian Dragon magazine. I decided to take up this challenge because it would give me a chance to see the candidates up close. And also because the editor-in-chief is Lito Gutierrez, whom I once worked with in Business Day newspaper (now dead).

Little did I know that trying to obtain interviews with every single one of them would be so damned difficult. My hubby, journalist Alan, was right. Candidates would hardly give me their time of day mainly because they would rather talk with TV and appear on TV. Not print. And I guess they would rather have their sound bites, and not be possibly bitten so early in the campaign. Not that I bite. Anyway -

Finally, last week, I was able to complete five interviews. Those of Senator Noynoy Aquino and ex-President Joseph Estrada were both ambush interviews. The rest were sit-down interviews: Sen. Chiz Escudero, Sen. Manny Villar and Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro.

Each one was a different personality. Each one had his charm as well as political baggage.

My initial conclusion – for the first time, the Filipino voter is presented with a wide variety of candidates.

What I would like to do later in this blog is to give you glimpses of the candidates, one of whom perhaps will be president next year.

I’m not going to say who to vote for.

I can only help by giving readers an INFORMED CHOICE.

Now, a word about Sen. Villar. Last week was the first time I was able to meet him. Years ago, Asiaweek magazine assigned me to interview him but he rejected my request through an assistant saying, “Alam ba yan ni Tony?” (Does Tony know?) He meant Tony Lopez, the chief reporter for Asiaweek.

Fine, I said. I wouldn’t push it if he chooses who should interview him.

And so I was pessimistic that my interview with him would push through. But apparently, Lito Guierrez and Olivia Limpe-Aw, the Asian Dragon publisher were persistent. They collared him good.

Villar was a surprise to me. He made me wonder – what is the most important quality that a Philippine president should have? I won’t elaborate on that now. I still have like three more articles to finish.

But I thought I’d share a tidbit now about him. When he was asked, “Is it true Willie (Revillame) will be your running mate?”

He replied – “No, ikaw naman, he’s a friend. But of course I will not say he’s not qualified to be fair with him. He’s very popular because of Wowowee (a game show).”

He said Willie was going around with him and giving people joy while being acutely aware that many of his fans were poverty-stricken, homeless, penniless and out of school.

Sen. Villar is regarded as the closest rival of Estrada for the affection of the poor, according to Sen. Ernesto Maceda in a separate interview. Maceda is Estrada’s key political strategist.

Sorry, have to go now.

Do wait for my blogs on the presidential candidates.

Veteran journalist Ellen Tordesillas found your letter (see below) , hiring her services, “strange” and insulting.

From the tenor of your letter, I’m sure Ellen was NOT the only journalist you wrote to. Which brings me to my point – that the Commission on Elections (Comelec) should deeply delve into your proposal.

Ellen, the woman named Samira Saba is real and she is Smartmatic’s Communications Manager based in Caracas, Venezuela. The press release below from Smartmatic Venezuela quotes Senora Saba:

In your Malaya column, Ellen, you called Smartmatic a “Dutch firm”. This is what Smartmatic has always wanted the Filipino public to believe. But in reality, it remains very much a Venezuelan firm, and merely uses the Netherlands as a convenient address. Here is the link to their board of directors – http://www.smartmatic.com/company/board-of-directors/

Also, if you recall, Smartmatic sent to the Senate inquiry their very handsome, gorgeous-looking telenovela-type company officers and not one of them was Dutch. All spoke with a heavy Latin American accent that makes listeners think they’re romancing the English language.On the face of it, Smartmatic’s proposal to Ellen (and most probably to other Filipino journalists) appears aboveboard. The company needs writers, and therefore they want to hire someone very credible like Ellen.

But there are some insinuations Senora Saba make about you, Ellen. For instance, Senora Saba states: “If you are interested in adding our organization as a regular client for your freelance writer services, we can define the extent and number of articles you could write monthly.”

Senora Saba presumes Ellen’s body of writing is all paid for by regular clients of “your freelance writer services.” Tsk, tsk. She doesn’t seem to know you could make a hell of a lot of money writing the very opposite of what you are publishing right now.

Senora Saba is also very helpful. She wants to hire Ellen to write about “Smartmatic technology in particular” and then adds that if Ellen agrees, “in this case, we would of course furnish appropriate materials to the required depth.”

Smartmatic wants Ellen to do PR work for them. Nothing wrong with PR. Trouble is, Senora Saba should have hired a PR agency, and not gone to Ellen.

Which makes me wonder what Smartmatic KNOWS and DOESN’T KNOW about how an automated election is supposed to work in a democracy. The Philippines, for all its flaws, prides itself as being run NOT IN THE WAY Hugo Chavez runs Venezuela, where Smartmatic has played a significant role legitimizing Chavez’s authoritarian rule.

Over the past several days, I must confess, I have had arguments with certain people over how credible Smartmatic is in conducting a very crucial election for the Philippines next year.. It was impressed upon me very clearly by two people (whom I will not name except to say they are in the know) that Smartmatic would be crazy to smear its name and brand worldwide by conducting a fraudulent election here next year. The two added that if there is any cheating that would be done, it would not come from Smartmatic.

Another person, whom I talked to, said Smartmatic was not doing what it had originally agreed to do – that is, educate the stakeholders about its product. Stakeholders mean – the voters and those who will directly be in charge of the voting machines. The source did not mean PR either. But actual training for these various stakeholders on the ground down to the grassroots level. The source described the Smartmatic machines as “just like a fax machine” that transmits data electronically.

Now, Smartmatic’s letter makes me wonder if the company knows how a democratic election is supposed to work. I mean, it’s very basic. You don’t hire journalists to do PR for you.

I know Filipino politicians do it all the time – hire working journalists to write PR pieces for them disguised as news. That’s what Smartmatic wants Ellen to do.

That’s not how the fourth estate – journalism – is supposed to work if it is to serve the public. Filipino readers have the right to know whether what they are reading as news was really gathered by the writer to the best of his or her ability and fairness of judgement and not because she was secretly hired by a third party.

Tell you what, Smartmatic, hire all the journalists in Manila and the provinces that you want. But publicly release the roster of your hired help. Fair for you, fair for the journalists who want to earn more, and fair for the reading public who read their write-ups.

Hasta luego, Samira.

_______________________________

Ellen’s Malaya column – October 12, 2009

Smartmatic’s insulting proposal

LAST Friday, I got this strange letter from a certain Samira Saba of Smartmatic, the Dutch firm that partnered with the local Total Information Management and won the P7.2 billion contract for the nationwide automation of the 2010 elections.

Here’s the letter:

Dear Mrs. Ellen

“My name is Samira Saba and I work at Smartmatic as the Marketing and Communications Manager (www.smartmatic.com).

“I have checked your blog and I find it quite interesting. I can see the articles published are responsible, and show that you as a rule strive to inform and educate your readers. For instance, the article “Rock the vote!”

“I would like to know if you have the time and the interest of writing some articles regarding the following subjects:

1) Election automation worldwide, and positive experiences in various countries.

2) Election automation in the Philippines, past and present.

3) Different technologies to automate an election. Perspectives and comparisons: shortcomings, advantages, political implications.

4) Smartmatic technology in particular (in this case, we would of course furnish appropriate materials to the required depth).

“If you are interested in adding our organization as a regular client for your freelance writer services, we can define the extent and number of articles you could write monthly. I will be glad to give you more details and answer the questions you may have.

“If your answer to the above is positive, then I would appreciate a quotation for your services, with a target of two articles published per month to begin with.

“I look forward to hearing from you the soonest.”

It was signed by Ms. Saba.

I find the letter insulting. It smacks of bribery. I had to take several deep breaths and reminded myself that I should not write anything when I’m angry.

Saturday, I replied, asking her “What and where in my articles gave you the idea that my services are for sale?”

I’m still waiting for her reply.

The newspaper I write for in Hong Kong gave me permission to share its editorial and my stories on Typhoon Ondoy International Code Name Ketsana). The pieces remain relevant since horrific typhoons continue to batter the Philippines and the unfulfilled promises recently contributed to needless deaths.

The editorial is entitled “Arroyo must make good on radar systems pledge.” It was written by Peter Kammerer, SCMP’s International Editor. Earlier I asked Ellen Tordesillas to post the editorial in her widely popular blog and she very kindly did it.

Below the editorial are my two stories on the storm -

1. The sidebar -No one warned us,’ says villager searching for her lost children

2. The main piece – Understanding why Manila drowned

My newspaper agreed to have these disseminated on my blog and Facebook, in the hope they will help do some good. Thank you for finding the time to read them – Raissa Robles, SCMP senior Manila correspondent

Arroyo must make good on radar systems pledge

Editorial of South China Morning Post
Oct. 5, 2009

A government’s priority is to protect the well-being of its people.

There is no better test of its commitment than when disaster strikes.
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s administration has, in
this regard, failed time and again. It did so spectacularly with
Tropical Storm Ketsana, again revealing how little it cares for its
constituents.

The Philippines is pounded by as many as 20 typhoons a year. Dozens,
sometimes hundreds, of people are killed and many millions of dollars
of damage is caused. Nature cannot be tamed, but in the case of severe weather events, technology means its wrath can be anticipated. Arroyo for the past five years has repeatedly promised to have advanced forecasting radar systems installed; politicking, corruption and government waste means they remain a pledge.

What happens when such systems are absent was demonstrated by Ketsana. (Ondoy)

Manila has not experienced as violent a downpour in 40 years. But in
the hours before the storm struck on the morning of September 26,
state weather forecasters were predicting only moderate to heavy rain.
No alert was issued and the city of 10 million was caught off-guard;
about 300 people were drowned by floodwaters and 300,000 made
homeless. Some parts of the city are still flooded.

The government’s failure extends beyond forecasting. Disaster response
mechanisms broke down. Emergency phones went unanswered. Rescue teams
had insufficient equipment and numbers. Citizens were forced to fend
for themselves.

Arroyo has promised, as she did after devastating storm-caused
landslides in 2004 and 2006, that there will not be a repeat. The
first two of up to 10 new weather radar systems could be in place by
the end of the year. Filipinos have learned not to hold their breath:
they have watched millions of dollars that could have bought such
systems several times over frittered away and Congressional debate
focused on seemingly more pressing matters like constitutional change.
But this time has to be different. Too many lives and livelihoods have
been needlessly lost and remain at risk.

No one warned us, says villager searching for her lost children

Raissa Robles
Updated on Oct 05, 2009

Victoria Tutor was beyond tears. She had just seen the body of her 16-year-old daughter, Vinaflor, and signed for the release of her remains.

That was Wednesday. Yesterday, there was still no sign of three of her other children who, like she and Vinaflor, had been swept away by rampaging waters caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana a week ago.
Her village, Bagong Silangan in Quezon City, was one of the hardest hit by the storm. Thirty-one bodies have been found, but a further 90, mostly children, are listed as missing.

Staff at Tajuna Funeral Home told Tutor they could only wrap Vinaflor’s body in cloth since they had run out of coffins. She said village officials, not just the incessant rain, were to blame for the tragedy. They had received no warning.

“There was none,” she said. “I only knew there was rain but had not heard news about a coming storm.”

Villagers were used to annual flooding brought by the rainy season, and normally just moved to higher ground when the water started flowing through, she said.

But on September 26, the floods came without warning. “We were inside the house and suddenly there was water. We went to the highest point in the village, and then the rushing waters met and we were forced to clamber onto rooftops.”

The water rose higher than the roofs and at 11am she and her six children were swept away. Two were saved. The others – Via, 11, Biancaflor, five, and Jonren, three – have yet to be found. Tutor managed to remain afloat by holding onto a piece of wood for three hours before being pulled to safety. “I bumped into a bridge and people on the bridge threw me a rope,” she said.

Her rescuers said Tutor was in Marikina City. Dazed and without money, she rested then started the long walk back to Bagong Silangan. Abandoned cars, buses and jeepneys jammed the roads. She arrived after an eight-hour trek in the dark.

Tutor sadly described her missing children in the desperate hope that someone would remember seeing them among the countless hordes of Manila.

Via was wearing a blouse with spaghetti straps and white pyjamas. Biancaflor was wearing a big white T-shirt, while Jonren was wearing a blue shirt and  and has a scar above his right eyebrow. “Please help me find them,” she said.

Filipinos received little warning and almost no official help

Raissa Robles, Updated on Oct 05, 2009</span>

When the typhoons and catastrophic rain they carried hit the Philippines, many of the impoverished residents received little warning. Hundreds died, and in the grief-filled aftermath, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo pledged “never again”, ordering the deployment of advanced Doppler radars capable of detecting the scale of potential rainfall.

That was 2004.

About five years after the devastation in Quezon that claimed 1,800 lives, the Doppler radars have yet to be constructed. Their continued absence is just one link in a tragic chain of events that culminated in the deaths of about 300 people in the Philippines just over a week ago and paralysed Manila, as 80 per cent of the capital city went under water. Rescue services seemed at a loss, incapable of dealing with an emergency that, at its peak, left tens of thousands of people stranded, waiting in vain for rescuers who never came.

It is a sequence of events that began with the failure to detect the huge amount of rain being carried by then Tropical Storm Ketsana. But as the situation worsened, warnings failed to reach those most in need, who were then forced to fend for themselves as the muddy waters rose, and the chain of command began to break down.

Dr Prisco Nilo, the head of the Philippine weather bureau (known as Pagasa), acknowledges that Doppler radars would have given forecasters a much better idea of what to expect before Ketsana dumped about 40cm of rain on Manila in nine hours on September 26.

Doppler radars – which have been installed by Hong Kong, Thailand and Taiwan, among other places – give real-time data on rainfall intensity in highly specific areas, said Nilo’s deputy, Nathaniel Cruz. He said the Philippines’ first Doppler would go online by year’s end, in Zambales province, “to guard Metro Manila against future Ondoys”, the local name for Ketsana.

But Nilo conceded that the radar’s US-based manufacturer, Enterprise Electronics Corporation, “only said they’ll try”. In fact, he said, the 100 million peso (HK$16.5 million) contract states a delivery date in the middle of next year for two Dopplers – just before the typhoon season.

In all, eight Doppler radars are to be built, five of them taxpayer-funded and three paid for by the Japan International Co-operation Agency (Jica). In addition, two existing radars will be upgraded, which it is hoped will give the country 10 Dopplers by 2013.

Nilo said the failure to have Dopplers in place so long after the Quezon disaster was because “the budget process in the Philippines takes long and we also have to go through a bidding process”. Critics of Arroyo have blamed the slow process on the government’s skewed sense of priorities.

The weather bureau chief doesn’t share such sentiments. Nilo said bureau staff referred to the new equipment as the “PGMA Dopplers” – after President Arroyo’s initials – to give her credit for the initiative of purchasing the gear.

Yet even with sophisticated new radar in place, Cruz was reluctant to predict that a repeat of last week’s disaster couldn’t occur in the country. “Even if we say, `Manila should get ready’, if `Pedro’ does not listen to the news or the village leaders don’t tell residents or residents refuse to leave, deaths will still happen,” he said.

The suggestion that Manila residents themselves bore part of the blame for the extent of Ketsana’s impact was first raised by Cruz’sboss. “Instead of just watching soap operas on TV, they should also watch the news,” Nilo said on September 27, a day after the deluge.

Yet judging by Pagasa’s weather bulletin issued on the eve of the storm, Ketsana would be a typical tropical storm, of which about 20 visit the Philippines each year.

Nilo was quoted by the Philippine Star newspaper on the day Ketsana struck saying “the storm will not cross Metro Manila … [but the metropolis would experience] moderate to heavy rains”. He said later that the forecast changed overnight – too late for the Star to change.

By September 26, Ketsana was drawing huge amounts of moisture from the southwest monsoon, causing the deluge over Metro Manila, he said. Pagasa would try to devise flood intensity warnings, he said, but added that this might not work all the time because “sometimes people respond only when they see the actual floodwaters, but then it might be too late”.

In any event, none of the warnings reached Bagong Silangan village. Residents could not tune in to the news on the night of September 25 because of a power blackout, not uncommon in the Quezon City squatter village. Nor was there any newscast the next morning, even as the rain fell. And so Metro Manila – a city of 10 million residents crammed into 636 sq km – went about its usual business. Office and factory workers began their half-day at work, while families stayed home, or went shopping

In impoverished Bagong Silangan – the name of the official settlement camp for slum dwellers means “new birth” – residents were well aware of the dangers of flash flooding. Nine years ago, 300 residents were buried alive when an enormous mound of rubbish next to the settlement collapsed in heavy rain.

But with no warning of what was on the way, residents like Victoria Tutor and her six children simply decided to sit out the rain at home. They were all swept away in the torrent that surged through Bagong Silangan. Tutor and two of the children were rescued; of the other four, only the body of 16-year-old Vinaflor has been recovered.

As it became increasingly clear on September 26 that a major disaster was unfolding, the seeming lack of official action infuriated many locals.

Trapped residents cowering in the upper floors of their homes tried phoning the lead disaster agency, the National Disaster Co-ordinating Council, at the height of the storm. Most (including this reporter) were met with engaged signals or phones that rang unanswered.

By late on September 26, tens of thousands cowered on high points and awaited rescuers. Rescue boats were notable by their absence. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro admitted that only one inflatable dinghy out of 13 he ordered made it to Marikina City – one of the worst-hit districts, where thousands awaited rescue.

There is some confusion about how many boats were pressed into action. Military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Romeo Brawner said that contrary to Teodoro’s comments, 17 inflatable boats had been sent into action. But he conceded that not  all were immediately put to their  best use.

“These boats could not penetrate right away due to the strong currents,” Brawner said. Ironically, traffic gridlock caused by flooded streets prevented the navy from sending more inflatable boats.

Brawner said that as a result of the experience, Teodoro had ordered the purchase of 50 more rubber boats.

Regardless of exactly how many boats were used, Marikina’s mayor, Marides Fernando, maintains that by that Sunday morning, not a single boat had reached her inundated city.

While state agencies were paralysed, it fell on Manila’s residents to take action themselves. Thousands simply waded, swam or paddled to higher ground.

The Manila Dragons dragon boat team used their traditional vessels and inflatable boats to pluck many people to safety. Team manager Romulo Valientes said the team, which has competed in Hong Kong and mainland China, had great difficulty paddling in waters filled with trash, dead rats, snakes, grease and diesel fuel.

Quezon City Judge Ralph Lee mounted his jet ski and rescued no fewer than 100 citizens. “I was so carried away by the very sad situation,” he said.

On Tuesday, Arroyo met her cabinet for the first time since the rain began. Many people were still stranded. Two senior ministers complained that local and village executives simply disappeared during the disaster. “The city and municipal disaster centres are not functioning now,” Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane told her.

Arroyo herself noted that the mayors of Cainta and Pasig cities were not answering her calls. And a senior executive from a private firm helping out in rescue efforts told the South China Morning Post that one colonel “nearly wept” at the height of the disaster because he had no one to co-ordinate with.

Armed Forces deputy chief of staff Lieutenant General Rodrigo Maclang reported to Arroyo that nearly 20,000 residents had been rescued by 2,000 soldiers and a thousand police officers. But in reality, many swam or walked out themselves, albeit guided by the rescuers. And the numbers represent a drop in a very muddy ocean – by mid-week, there were more than 300,000 people taking refuge in shelters across Manila.

Few doubt that another major storm will one day hit Manila and trigger flooding again, although perhaps not on such a grand scale as in Ketsana’s case.

To avert a similar outcome, Teodoro has said he will position rescue equipment in advance and enforce the mandatory evacuations for children next time.

Lawmakers also promised to enact a long-pending comprehensive law on reducing disaster risk that includes a controversial proposal to regulate land use. Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando has blamed the flooding on unregulated growth of gated communities that filled in natural waterways so that floodwaters had nowhere to drain.

But such pledges come too late for people such as Muelmar Magallanes, a heroic 18-year-old who saved 30 people in Bagong Silangan before he himself was engulfed and drowned. The greatest tragedy is that the efforts of people like Magallanes were required at all.